TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(6)
And I was shocked and shaken to the core. 我震惊不已， 吓得不得了。 And I went through this roller coaster, because after they stabilized her, she went to the intensive care unit, and I hoped against hope that she would recover. 之后我的
TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(7)
And it wasn't because of my attending; he was a doll. 而这也不是因为我的主治；他人非常好。 He talked to the family, and I'm quite sure that he smoothed things over and made sure that I didn't get sued. 他和那家人好好的谈过。
TED演讲 医生们会犯错误(8)
And two days later I came to do my next emergency shift, and that's when my chief asked to speak to me quietly in her office. 两天后，又轮到我在急诊室值班。那时我的主任要我去她的办公室里私下谈谈。 And she said the t
TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(9)
But each time, they were gnawing at me, eating at me. 但每当我想到这两起病例， 那种感觉都会折磨啃噬我。 And I'd like to be able to say to you 而我也希望我可以告诉你, that my worst mistakes only happened in the first
TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(10)
It's a system in which there are two kinds of physicians -- those who make mistakes and those who don't, 在这个制度当中，只有两种人 -- 犯错的不犯错的， those who can't handle sleep deprivation and those who can, those who have lo
TED演讲：医生们会犯错误(11)
What they need is an environment to be able to do that. 他们只是需要一个场合来吐露心声。 What they need is a redefined medical culture. 他们需要的是一个重新定义的医学文化。 And it starts with one physician at a time.
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(1)
It's the Second World War. A German prison camp. 这是二战期间，一个德国集中营。 And this man, Archie Cochrane, is a prisoner of war and a doctor, and he has a problem. 这个人，阿奇卡克伦，是战俘也是一名医生，他遇到
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(2)
So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can into two equal groups. 所以阿奇就把他的病人平分 成两组人。他给其中的一半维他命C。他给另一半维他命B12。 He gives half of them vitamin C. He gives half of them
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(3)
I'm not even telling you the story because I think we should be running more carefully controlled randomized trials in all aspects of public policy, 我跟你说这个故事也不是因为我认为，我们在公共政策的各个方面，做随机抽样
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(4)
Well let me give you an example. 让我来给你们一个例子。 Imagine for a moment that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you, there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs. 你们想象一下，现在如果站在你们面前的不是我，而是
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(5)
Five thousand products -- that's still nothing. 5000个产品，这还没什么。 Five thousand products -- imagine counting every product category in Cesar Hidalgo's data. 5000个产品，想象我们来数塞萨尔伊达尔戈数据中的每个产品
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(6)
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us. 所以这就是我们所处环境的复杂性。 This perhaps is why we find the God complex so tempting. 这也许正是为什么我们发现万能神力这么有吸引力的原因。 We tend
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(7)
You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle. You create a spray of detergent. 你用高压将它压过一个喷嘴，你制造了清洁剂喷雾。 Then the spray dries. It turns into powder. It falls to the floor. 喷雾干燥后就成了粉末，
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(8)
We have no idea why it works, no idea at all. 我们不知道，为什么它那么高效，根本不知道。 And the moment you step back from the God complex -- let's just try to have a bunch of stuff; 当你不再认为自己有万能神力而是开
TED演讲：试验 排除错误和万能神力(9)
Now I've been sort of banging on about this for the last couple of months, 在过去的几个月里，我反复在讨论这个问题， and people sometimes say to me, Well Tim, it's kind of obvious. Obviously trial and error is very important. 有时有
