经济学人:梧桐树专栏 买股票的精髓是什么?(1)

 　　Finance and Economics 财经

　　Buttonwood: Bumper¹ buy-backs 梧桐树专栏：丰厚的回购

　　A new paper argue that to forecast share returns, buy-backs as well as dividends³ must be counted. 一项新研究表明，想要预测股票收益，必须计算回购和股息。

　　What is the point of buying shares? 买股票的精髓是什么？

　　Ultimately investors⁴ must hope that the cash they receive from the company will offer an attractive long-term return. 最终投资者必须期望他们从企业获得的现金能够提供有吸引力的长期回报。

　　Over the long run, reinvested dividends rather than capital gains have comprised the vast bulk of returns. 从长期来看，相对于资本收益，股息再投资可以带来大量的回报。

　　But since the 1980s American firms have increasingly used share buy-backs, which have tax advantages for some investors. 但是二十世纪八十年代以来，美国企业却越来越多地使用股票回购，因为对于一些投资者来说股票回购有着税收优势。

　　Buy-backs have been higher than dividend² payments in eight of the past ten years. 在过去十年中，有八年回购一直高于股息支付。

　　In a buy-back, investors receive cash for a proportion of their holdings. 在回购中，投资者根据自己的持股比例获得现金收益。

　　A new paper in the Financial Analysts⁵ Journal argues that adding this to dividend receipts to calculate a total payout yield  《金融分析师期刊》的一篇新论文认为，将股票回购加到股息单据上来计算总股利收益率，

　　gives a better estimate of future returns than the dividend yield alone. 相比于单独地估算股息率，能够更好的估算出未来收益。

　　It also reveals a much better match between stockmarket performance and overall economic growth. 这也揭示了股市表现与整体经济增长之间更好的匹配关系。

　　Using data going back to 1871, the authors find that the average dividend yield has been 4.5% and the total payout yield 4.89%. 把数据追溯到1871年，研究者发现当时的平均股息率为4.5%，总股利收益率为4.89%。

　　Since 1970 the dividend yield has dropped to 3.03%, but the total payout yield has averaged 4.26%. 从1970年以来，股息率已经跌到3.03%，但是总股利收益率平均为4.26%。

　　Looked at on that basis, the overall income return from shares has been not that far below historical levels. 从这个基础来看，整体股票收益还未远低于历史水平。

　　The return from shares can be broken down into three components⁶: the initial income yield; growth in the income stream; and any change in valuation. 股票收益可以被分解成三个组成部分：初始收益、收益的增长和估值的变化。

　　(If shares become more expensive, the yield will fall. （股价越高，初始收益率就会越低。

　　Say the dividend is $6 and the share price is $100, the initial yield will be 6%. 也就是说股息是6美元，股价为100美元，初始收益率就是6%。

　　If the shares rise to $120, the yield will fall to 5% but the investors will have made a capital gain.) 如果股价上升到120美元，初始收益率就会跌到5%，但投资者这时已经获得资本收益了。）

　　Over the long run, changes in valuation levels do not make much difference to the return. 长期来看，估值水平的变动不会对收益产生太大的影响。

　　What has driven stockmarket returns in recent decades is that total payouts have grown faster than before. 最近几十年，推动股市收益的是总股息远超以往的飞速增长。

　　The growth rate since 1871 has been 2.05%; since 1970, it has been 3.44%. 到1871以来，总股息增长率已经为2.05%，1970年以来，增长率达3.44%。

　　That is probably because of strong corporate⁷ profits, which recently hit a post-1945 high as a proportion of America's GDP. 这可能是企业强劲的利润导致的，并且最近在美国GDP所占比例中达到1945年后的新高。

1 bumper   

n.(汽车上的)保险杠；adj.特大的，丰盛的

参考例句：

• The painting represents the scene of a bumper harvest.这幅画描绘了丰收的景象。
• This year we have a bumper harvest in grain.今年我们谷物丰收。

2 dividend   

n.红利，股息；回报，效益

参考例句：

• The company was forced to pass its dividend.该公司被迫到期不分红。
• The first quarter dividend has been increased by nearly 4 per cent.第一季度的股息增长了近 4%。

3 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

6 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

7 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。