pbs高端访谈:GDP有所下滑但经济势头仍然良好

 　　JEFFREY BROWN:Whither the economy? That's been the question for quite a while now. Today, there was a surprising and perhaps confusing new twist.

　　The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product actually shrank in the last quarter of 2012. The drop was small, one-tenth of a percent. But it was still the first time economic output had fallen in three-and-a-half years. Government spending dropped, most dramatically in the defense¹ sector².

　　The report, though, also contained some positive developments. Consumer spending and business investment were both up. And yesterday, the so-called Case-Shiller index found that housing prices grew in 20 major cities by an average of 5.5 percent over the previous year. It was the biggest gain in six years.

　　We talk it through now with Joel Naroff, an economist³ who heads his own consulting firm in Pennsylvania, and Roben Farzad, a senior writer with Bloomberg Businessweek.

　　Joel Naroff, let me start with you. This really was a surprise to most people. What happened? What's behind the contraction⁴ last quarter?

　　JOEL NAROFF, Naroff Economic Advisers⁵: Well, it was largely the government's doing between the largest cutback in 40 years in defense, which took well over a percentage point of growth out, and the fears of falling off the fiscal⁶ cliff, which caused businesses to be really, really cautious in their inventories⁷ and they fell dramatically, taking another percentage point or more out.

　　Those were the basic reasons. But, you know, as was noted⁸, when you look at the fundamentals and the details of what's going on in businesses and households and housing, those are all solid. And I think that really says this economy has forward momentum⁹, despite what the numbers seem to indicate.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:All right, well, I want to come back to momentum, but first—the first two points you made, first about government the cuts, and we have heard a lot about that, but the companies restocking at a slower rate, what does that—what's behind that? What does that tell you?

　　JOEL NAROFF: Well, I think really what happened was that businesses were really cautious, uncertain about whether or not we'd wind up going off the fiscal cliff.

　　And they made some very short-term decisions. It's easy just to keep the warehouses¹⁰ essentially¹¹ empty. If we don't go off the cliff, they can refill them quickly. And so I think what happened during the end of the year was they just ran things very, very close to the vest, and now I think we will see in the first part of this year that they will have to rebuild it, and that will add to growth.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Well, Roben Farzad, as we heard from Kwame Holman, the Federal Reserve referred to this as a pause in the economy. What do you see?

　　ROBEN FARZAD, Bloomberg Businessweek: The Federal Reserve has its foot on the gas, the pedal to the metal.

　　It is targeting unemployment now with inflation so benign¹². After all, unemployment is still perilously¹³ close to 8 percent. It's been above, I think, 7.5 percent for the longest stretch in the post-World War II period. And the Federal Reserve realizes there is so much slack in the

　　system, it's going to keep going out there, keep rates at painfully low levels to support homeowners, people who want to take out mortgages.

　　Obviously, corporations that can borrow at record low levels are loving this. And, oh, by the way, the stock market is at near record levels. I don't think many people on the street would appreciate that, but when and if they do remember their 401(k) log-ins and they go in there, they're bound to have a positive wealth effect for them.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Well, tell us, Roben. On that, there have been report that small investors¹⁴ have been getting back into the market. They're a little bit more confident, I guess. Is that the case and what does that tell you?

　　ROBEN FARZAD: It's a paradox¹⁵, in that small investors I think for the past three years have cashed out of stock mutual¹⁶ funds to the tune¹⁷ of $300 billion. Now, mind you, this was a three-year period that saw the stock market double. So it's really more evidence of that rather tragic¹⁸ buy high, sell low behavior that I think mom-and-pop investors have shown for many decades.

　　And now they're realizing, many of them, that they're going to need the money for retirement¹⁹. Yields on savings²⁰, on bonds are so low that they have to go out there and get some more scratch, essentially, into retirement. And it's not just retirement. It's their children's education plans. It's thrown everything into question, this great economic calamity²¹.

　　If you thought you were retiring at 65, maybe you have to push it back to 70. Are you going to have enough disposable income? Are you going to have to downsize out of your home? And I think the Federal Reserve is still mindful of that and wants to be as accommodative as possible for as long as possible.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:Well, Joel Naroff, coming back to the signs you were seeing of potential growth, the market, other factors, address the consumer issue and the confidence issue. What signs do you see?

　　JOEL NAROFF: Well, there's actually two opposite things that's going on.

　　They're saying that they're losing confidence. The recent confidence numbers were down fairly sharply. At the same time, almost all the data that's related to consumer spending, whether it's retail²² sales, vehicle sales, housing market, which is really an indication of consumer confidence, are all going strongly.

　　So I think, if you look at what they're doing, not what they're saying, the consumers are still voting with their dollars that things are going to get better. Now that taxes are increased, we have got to see how they're reacting to that, but up until this point, almost everything pointed²³ to stronger consumer spending. And that,I take as a positive sign.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:What about just filling in a little bit more on the housing sector? Because those numbers came out yesterday. They looked good. They were interpreted as very positive. But I note that even Robert Shiller himself sort of suggested that he can't read all that much into them. How important is that sector?

　　JOEL NAROFF: Yes.

　　Well, to me I think housing is critically important, not simply because of home construction, which obviously powers an awful lot of jobs. But when you consider all the people who have been underwater for so long, and they have this negative wealth effect, we have talked about the fact that 401(k)s are going up. If they see the house prices going up, they feel an awful lot better as well.

　　And so I think this strength in the housing prices are really the most important factor out there, and it's spread really across the country, not quite as strong as what's going on in some of the areas that collapsed²⁴, like Phoenix²⁵ or Las Vegas. But really any price increase that we're seeing, 3 percent, 4 percent, 5 percent, in areas brings more and more people above water, they feel better, they can start making the moves they wanted to do, and that helps the economy.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:You know, Roben Farzad, we started this conversation with talk about the defense cuts hitting the GDP in the last quarter. We now face the possibility, real possibility, of more defense cuts and very big domestic cuts. That's clearly a factor in anybody's thinking for forecasting the economy going forward, I assume.

　　ROBEN FARZAD: That's true.

　　And, Jeff, frankly²⁶, I have stopped calling it the fiscal cliff. It got so tired. I'm calling it the budgetary butte, with your permission.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:OK.

　　ROBEN FARZAD: It just—it became so cliche²⁷ into that final quarter of the year. And you saw the market largely shrugged²⁸ it off.

　　JEFFREY BROWN:It's more picturesque²⁹. A butte is more picturesque, I think, than a cliff, but go ahead, yes.

　　ROBEN FARZAD: Yes, indeed.

　　So I feel that investors at least are not bothered about this. They see this as a game of chicken going up and down Pennsylvania between the White House and Congress. And much of this has been kicked down the road effectively for a couple of months. We do know that we have an unsustainable budget deficit³⁰ situation.

　　But on the flip³¹ side of that, you have economists³² like Paul Krugman out there saying do not worry about the budget deficit, this is not the time to be slashing³³ public spending. As you saw, that actually helped push that economy into decline in the final quarter. That was a big variable in that. So this is a huge debate.

　　But, on balance, what you're seeing is a lot of the unexpected has surprised to the positive. You mentioned housing. Housing is not just virtuous³⁴ in that it helps homeowners and construction workers out there and material suppliers. It's also helping³⁵ the banking³⁶ sector, which, after all, gorged³⁷ itself on these terrible mortgages back in 2007 and 2008, and it thought that it had to just write those off forever.

　　So manufacturing is surprising to the upside. Suddenly, Detroit is resurgent. Suddenly, you're reading more about people who want to set up factories here in the United States because labor³⁸ is becoming more expensive in the developing world.

　　So this economy has really demonstrated an ability to surprise to the upside. And now the big question is, does this recourse back into employment? Do you see the hundreds of thousands of people who have to be hired every month to sustainably cut into this unemployment rate?

　　JEFFREY BROWN:All right, Roben Farzad and Joel Naroff, thank you both very much.

　　JOEL NAROFF: Thank you.

　　ROBEN FARZAD:Thank you.

1 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

2 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

5 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

8 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

9 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

10 warehouses   

仓库，货栈( warehouse的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The whisky was taken to bonded warehouses at Port Dundee. 威士忌酒已送到邓迪港的保稅仓库。
• Row upon row of newly built warehouses line the waterfront. 江岸新建的仓库鳞次栉比。

11 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

12 benign   

adj.善良的，慈祥的；良性的，无危险的

参考例句：

• The benign weather brought North America a bumper crop.温和的气候给北美带来大丰收。
• Martha is a benign old lady.玛莎是个仁慈的老妇人。

13 perilously   

adv.充满危险地，危机四伏地

参考例句：

• They were perilously close to the edge of the precipice. 他们离悬崖边很近，十分危险。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It'seemed to me that we had come perilously close to failure already. 对我来说，好像失败和我只有一步之遥，岌岌可危。 来自互联网

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

15 paradox   

n.似乎矛盾却正确的说法；自相矛盾的人(物)

参考例句：

• The story contains many levels of paradox.这个故事存在多重悖论。
• The paradox is that Japan does need serious education reform.矛盾的地方是日本确实需要教育改革。

16 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

17 tune   

n.调子；和谐，协调；v.调音，调节，调整

参考例句：

• He'd written a tune,and played it to us on the piano.他写了一段曲子，并在钢琴上弹给我们听。
• The boy beat out a tune on a tin can.那男孩在易拉罐上敲出一首曲子。

18 tragic   

adj.悲剧的，悲剧性的，悲惨的

参考例句：

• The effect of the pollution on the beaches is absolutely tragic.污染海滩后果可悲。
• Charles was a man doomed to tragic issues.查理是个注定不得善终的人。

19 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

20 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

21 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

22 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

23 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

24 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

25 phoenix   

n.凤凰，长生(不死)鸟；引申为重生

参考例句：

• The airline rose like a phoenix from the ashes.这家航空公司又起死回生了。
• The phoenix worship of China is fetish worship not totem adoration.中国凤崇拜是灵物崇拜而非图腾崇拜。

26 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

27 cliche   

n./a.陈词滥调(的)；老生常谈(的)；陈腐的

参考例句：

• You should always try to avoid the use of cliche. 你应该尽量避免使用陈词滥调。
• The old cliche is certainly true:the bigger car do mean bigger profits.有句老话倒的确说得不假:车大利大。

28 shrugged   

vt.耸肩（shrug的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• Sam shrugged and said nothing. 萨姆耸耸肩膀，什么也没说。
• She shrugged, feigning nonchalance. 她耸耸肩，装出一副无所谓的样子。 来自《简明英汉词典》

29 picturesque   

adj.美丽如画的，（语言）生动的，绘声绘色的

参考例句：

• You can see the picturesque shores beside the river.在河边你可以看到景色如画的两岸。
• That was a picturesque phrase.那是一个形象化的说法。

30 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

31 flip   

vt.快速翻动；轻抛；轻拍；n.轻抛；adj.轻浮的

参考例句：

• I had a quick flip through the book and it looked very interesting.我很快翻阅了一下那本书，看来似乎很有趣。
• Let's flip a coin to see who pays the bill.咱们来抛硬币决定谁付钱。

32 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

33 slashing   

adj.尖锐的；苛刻的；鲜明的；乱砍的v.挥砍( slash的现在分词 )；鞭打；割破；削减

参考例句：

• Slashing is the first process in which liquid treatment is involved. 浆纱是液处理的第一过程。 来自辞典例句
• He stopped slashing his horse. 他住了手，不去鞭打他的马了。 来自辞典例句

34 virtuous   

adj.有品德的，善良的，贞洁的，有效力的

参考例句：

• She was such a virtuous woman that everybody respected her.她是个有道德的女性，人人都尊敬她。
• My uncle is always proud of having a virtuous wife.叔叔一直为娶到一位贤德的妻子而骄傲。

35 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

36 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

37 gorged   

v.（用食物把自己）塞饱，填饱( gorge的过去式和过去分词 )；作呕

参考例句：

• He gorged himself at the party. 在宴会上他狼吞虎咽地把自己塞饱。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The men, gorged with food, had unbuttoned their vests. 那些男人，吃得直打饱嗝，解开了背心的钮扣。 来自辞典例句

38 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。