PBS高端访问:华尔街股市动荡,映射全球经济

 　　GWEN IFILL: In recent days and weeks, the financial markets have been even more impossible to predict, swinging from record leaps to sudden drops. While the Dow Jones industrial average was nearly flat today, it's been anything but recently, dropping 10 times in the last 12 days, a decline of 4 percent, or more than 670 points, in three days straight, and swing five days in a row by 100 points or more. Plus, the S&P 500 dropped this week to its lowest point since the fiscal¹ cliff showdown of 2012.

　　So, what's happening here?

　　Eswar Prasad, an economist² at Cornell University and the Brookings Institution, is here to answer your and our questions.

　　What's happening here?

　　ESWAR PRASAD, Cornell University: It's a combination, Gwen, of uncertainty³, the Federal Reserve, as always, and fear, uncertainty because the U.S. economy seems to be on the right track. It's generating pretty good growth. The recovery is strengthening.

　　But the rest of the world is weakening. Everywhere you look around the world, China, Japan, Europe, even countries like Germany that were doing well, are looking very weak. So, the question is whether the U.S. can sustain the global recovery on its own back.

　　The Federal Reserve looked like it might start having to tighten⁴ policy, raising interest rates, because the economy was doing well. But now there are uncertainties⁵ about when the Fed might attack, because, again, the U.S. economy is doing well, generating jobs. Also, there is a fair amount of slack left in labor⁶ markets.

　　But now the world environment is weakening, so there's uncertainty there. And, finally, the Ebola epidemic⁷ raises the potential that so far, the economic impact has been very limited, but there's real fear it could become something bigger.

　　GWEN IFILL: Let's separate what's happening globally from what's happening domestically.

　　First, globally, we're talking, what, $1.5 trillion in global equities⁹ wiped out in a week. What kind of weakness is that telling us, is that signaling?

　　ESWAR PRASAD: It's telling us that really the policy-makers in the rest of the world have no room to move, because what we have in Europe, for instance, is the core economies, like Germany and France and Italy — these are the biggest economies in Europe — these were doing pretty well until recently, although the other (INAUDIBLE) economies were not doing so well.

　　The one certainly arose from debt crisis. Now even Germany has stalled. So have France and Italy. The central banker, Mario Draghi, has said he will try to act, but there's no room on fiscal policy because there's a huge amount of debt and other reforms to labor and product markets not working well.

　　So, the reality is that monetary¹⁰ policy may turn out not to be very potent⁸. The same is true in Japan. And in China, growth is slowing. So, around the world, the U.S. remains¹¹ the one bright spot.

　　GWEN IFILL: Well, let's talk about the domestic issue, because the one thing we watch, as you heard those numbers, is the ups and the downs and the ups and the downs in Wall Street. And we're loathe¹² to say what drives them.

　　But is there any — at the very least, let's just look about the fact of the ups and downs, the volatility¹³ itself. Is there something underlying¹⁴ all of that?

　　ESWAR PRASAD: I think it's really concern, a sense of foreboding about the future, because, remember, stock markets reflect not what's happening today, but what might happen in the future.

　　Right now, the picture in the U.S. actually looks pretty good, because this economy has an unemployment rate under 6 percent. It is generating more than 200,000 non-farm jobs per month. The economy grew in the second quarter at a 4.6 percent annual rate. So the numbers look pretty good.

　　Falling oil prices are a pretty good thing for the U.S. Inflation is contained. But — and the big but is that the global remains weak, and the U.S. alone cannot sustain itself. Right now, every currency in the world almost, other than the Chinese renminbi, is weakening against the dollar. How long can the dollar hold on against this background?

　　GWEN IFILL: But the dollar is pretty strong right now. Is that enough to stop investors¹⁶ from fleeing the market, or are they just moving their money around, taking advantage of opportunities?

　　ESWAR PRASAD: Actually, a lot more money is coming into the U.S. because the U.S. looks like the one country still growing well.

　　But it will have an effect on exports, it will have an effect jobs. And I think this is what was making investors skittish¹⁷. On the one hand, they see good news. But they see the prospects¹⁸ of this becoming a recovery that is very difficult for the U.S. to sustain.

　　GWEN IFILL: Right. If you're an average investor¹⁵, a small-bore person like you or me maybe, what is safer right now, your job or your portfolio¹⁹?

　　ESWAR PRASAD: I think ultimately the U.S. stock market is a pretty good place to invest.

　　And, remember, the stock market, despite the recent decline, is still slightly ahead of where it was at the end of last — end of 2013. I think employment growth is picking up, but there's a large portion of the population that is still not seeing the benefits either in terms of their portfolios²⁰ or in terms of job growth.

　　So, it's still a very, very uncertain recovery at some level.

　　GWEN IFILL: And that's the nervousness that you're talking about that we see everywhere.

　　ESWAR PRASAD: That's exactly right.

　　GWEN IFILL: Eswar Prasad from Brookings Institution, thank you a lot.

　　ESWAR PRASAD: My pleasure.

1 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

4 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

5 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

6 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

7 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

8 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

9 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

10 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

11 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

12 loathe   

v.厌恶，嫌恶

参考例句：

• I loathe the smell of burning rubber.我厌恶燃着的橡胶散发的气味。
• You loathe the smell of greasy food when you are seasick.当你晕船时，你会厌恶油腻的气味。

13 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

14 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

15 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

16 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

17 skittish   

adj.易激动的，轻佻的

参考例句：

• She gets very skittish when her boy-friend is around.她男朋友在场时，她就显得格外轻佻。
• I won't have my son associating with skittish girls.我不准我的儿子与轻佻的女孩交往。

18 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

19 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

20 portfolios   

n.投资组合( portfolio的名词复数 )；（保险）业务量；（公司或机构提供的）系列产品；纸夹

参考例句：

• Price risk arises in non-trading portfolios, as well as in trading portfolios. 价格风险中出现的非贸易投资，以及在贸易投资组合。 来自互联网
• How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? 我们怎样育肥我们的投资结构和维持财政健康呢？ 来自互联网