PBS高端访问:突降的美国燃气价格背后隐藏着什么?

 　　HARI SREENIVASAN: As you no doubt know, gas prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks. According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of regular was $3.52 in late July. Now, less three months later, it's $3.12.

　　For more, we are joined now by Isaac Arnsdorf. He is an (INAUDIBLE) with Bloomberg News.

　　So we've seen it decline a lot and sometimes there's a lag between the price of oil and the price of gas.

　　So are we likely to see the price of gas go lower?

　　ISAAC ARNSDORF: It could continue to tick down a little bit. We are seeing oil prices start to stabilize¹, significantly lower than they were this summer, but it depends sort of where oil goes from now. If oil continues to its freefall, really, or finds a floor around $80 a barrel.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: And is it likely to last?

　　I mean, there are so many different factors that are pushing it down.

　　ISAAC ARNSDORF: Absolutely. We've got very soft demand globally and expanding supply from the U.S. and really all eyes are on OPEC now to see if they cut back supply or continue to add supply and let prices continue to fall.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: OK. And there were comments made by the IMF in Saudi Arabia earlier this week about what's good and what's bad for Saudi Arabia and what's that price point.

　　What's that all about?

　　ISAAC ARNSDORF: Well, the IMF estimates that Saudi Arabia needs about $83 a barrel to break even on its budget. But Saudi Arabia has a lot of currency reserves and very good credit. They've run deficits² before and they could withstand it for some time.

　　So lower prices, while it would reduce Saudi Arabia's income, it would actually probably hurt some of their big rivals more, like Iran or Russia. So, you know, there's — analysts³ are sort of split.

　　Is OPEC just not hanging together? Or there's a camp that thinks maybe Saudi Arabia is all right with the prices being lower.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: And so what's the upside here?

　　When prices fall at the pump, consumers in the United States actually feel better about it because they're paying less at the gas station, but what are kind of the economic ripple⁴ effects when there are low gas prices?

　　ISAAC ARNSDORF: Absolutely. This is about the equivalent of a $500 or $600 tax cut for every household and that's money that will probably basically be spent right away because so many Americans live paycheck to paycheck and spend everything in their pocket so anything that they save on fuel, that's money that will go right into the economy and into consumer spending.

　　And that will happen pretty quickly and the economic effect of that could be about 0.4 percent of GDP growth.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: Wow. How does that ripple into, for example, the holiday shopping season?

　　Or is that more money in the pocket that can have — that we can start spending on toys and gifts, et cetera, et cetera?

　　ISAAC ARNSDORF: Yes. The other interesting thing about gas prices, as it's often been noted⁵, is it's really peculiar⁶ the way we buy it. We sit there and we watch the dollars roll by. So even more than the actual effect on income is this psychological effect on consumer confidence because we really notice when those prices move around as we watch them go by.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: OK. So to recap, the big reasons are that China is perhaps demanding less oil?

　　ISAAC ARNSDORF:Absolutely.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: And at the same time that the U.S. is creating more natural gas and oil reserves? Or…?

　　ISAAC ARNSDORF: Yes, so the U.S. is producing a lot more oil domestically, importing a lot less, which makes a lot more oil available on the world market to go to Asia. But China is not importing — or the growth is slowing down there.

　　Also, in developing countries, cars are getting more efficient and people are driving less. So demand globally is growing at the slowest pace since 2009 and 2009 was, obviously, a very weak year. And at the same time there is all this supply coming on from the U.S. and elsewhere. So that's why we've seen prices take such a nosedive.

　　HARI SREENIVASAN: OK. Isaac Arnsdorf from Bloomberg news, thanks so much.

　　ISAAC ARNSDORF: Thank you.

1 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

2 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

5 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

6 peculiar   

adj.古怪的，异常的；特殊的，特有的

参考例句：

• He walks in a peculiar fashion.他走路的样子很奇特。
• He looked at me with a very peculiar expression.他用一种很奇怪的表情看着我。