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叙利亚邻国评估美军打击叙利亚的影响

The prospect¹ of U.S. military action against Syria highlights the web of regional interests in Syria's conflict, raising troubling questions about how those lined up both for and against the Syrian government might respond.

美国将对叙利亚采取军事行动这一事件让在叙利亚冲突事件中各个国家、地方的利益成为关注的焦点。那些声援或反对叙利亚政府的国家将如何进一步行动，引起了令人心头不安的疑问。

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has warned that U.S. military action against his country would unleash² a regional war.

叙利亚总统阿萨德发出警告说，美国对叙的军事打击行动将会引发一场区域战争。

One flaw in that threat is that, in many ways, the Syrian conflict already is.

不过阿萨德的这一威胁明显存在一个漏洞，因为不管怎么说，叙利亚内部的冲突已经是一场区域战争了。

Professor Christian³ Donath, of the American University in Cairo, says regional powers - from Assad opponents like Saudi Arabia to supporters like Iran - are using the war to do battle with other rivals.

政治理论学家克里斯丁多纳特表示，无论是反对阿萨德的国家如沙特阿拉伯还是支持者如伊朗这样的地区性大国，都将利用这场战争来对抗他们的对手。

"Saudis have seen Syria as an opportunity to push back on the Iranians. And the Iranians see the uprising against the Assad regime as threatening their corridor into Lebanon for their support of Hezbollah," he said. "And I think the Iraqis as well are kind of pulled into two different directions trying to sort of support the Assad regime while they have Sunni fighters going in across the borders in Syria.”

多纳特说： “沙特已将这场叙利亚战争视为逼退伊朗的机会，而伊朗则将反对阿萨德政权的起义定义为威胁支持黎巴嫩真主党的伊朗人进入黎巴嫩的通道。”

All these players are now calculating the aim of any U.S. strike: from the stated punitive⁴ action for alleged⁵ chemical weapons use, to attempted regime change.

"I think Iranians will be cautious to see how far Americans will go against Bashar al Assad and then to decide eventually about retaliations," said Mustafa Labbad, the director of the Al Sharq Center for Regional and Strategic Studies.  "And they have Hezbollah in Lebanon for indirect retaliations.  But in this case Israel will be involved.  And if Israelis are involved, Iran will be involved and maybe Israel will launch an air strike against Iran.”

政治分析员穆斯塔法　拉巴德说： “我认为伊朗将会十分警惕美国下一步会如何打击阿萨德，然后才会最终决定采用什么反击手段。此外，他们还有在黎巴嫩的真主党来协助进行非直接反击。但在这一情况下以色列也会被牵涉进来，而一旦以色列加入其中，伊朗也势必会参与，以色列也因此有可能对伊朗发起空袭。”

Israel's concerns over Iran stem mainly from Tehran's nuclear program, not the war in Syria.  But Professor Donath says a U.S. strike could give Israel cover.

以色列对伊朗的担忧主要源于伊朗德黑兰核项目，而不是叙利亚的战争。但是多纳特教授说美国对叙利亚的袭击可以给以色列一个发动攻击的借口。

"The Israelis have been really vocal⁶ for some years now about potential strikes against Iran and I think one of the things that the administration, the U.S. administration has done, has tried to restrain the Israelis and make it clear that this is not something that the U.S. wants to continue to pursue diplomatic initiatives and I think there would be, I think the U.S. would be very, very nervous to allow the Israelis to strike against Iran,” he said.

“长期以来，以色列一直口头声称将可能对伊朗发起攻击。到目前为止，我认为美国政府都一直极力约束以色列并表明以色列的这一行为并非是美国想继续追求外交上的主动权。而且我认为如果容许以色列打击伊朗，美国会非常，非常紧张”。

Political analyst⁷ Labbad points to apparent behind-the-scenes diplomacy⁸ between Iran and the U.S. via the Sultan of Oman, to assure Iran that any strike is not aimed at toppling Assad.

美国正在通过阿曼苏丹国和伊朗进行着明显的幕后外交，以向伊朗确保任何对叙利亚的攻击都不是旨在推翻阿萨德政权。

"If you look at the surface we can see an agreement between Saudi Arabia and USA on doing something against Bashar [al-Assad], " he said.  "Deep inside you will see U.S.-Iranian agreement of no intention from the U.S. to topple Bashar al Assad.”

“如果仅从表面来看，你会看到沙特阿拉伯和美国已达成协议一同对付阿萨德。但实际上你会发现美国和伊朗就美国无意推翻阿萨德政权也达成了一致。”

Labbad argues that despite the uncertainty⁹, regional powers are calculating their response, for now, on a limited U.S. airstrike.  If not, he says, all bets are off, and the possibility of “regional chaos” he says, grows.

拉巴德 表示尽管目前尚有许多不确定因素，各区域性大国都已开始酝酿他们针对美国对叙利亚进行有限空袭的对策。如果当前这些约定都付之东流的话，那么叙利亚及周边区域的混乱局势将持续恶化。