人民币纳入SDR的障碍

 　　If, 20 or 30 years from now, central banks and sovereign wealth funds hold a significant portion of their reserves in renminbi-denominated assets, financial historians will probably look back on 2015 as a turning point.

　　如果二、三十年后，各国央行和主权财富基金持有的外汇储备中相当大一部分是人民币计价资产，金融史学家在回首往事时，很可能将2015年视为拐点。

　　The International Monetary¹ Fund is engaged in a year-long review of the currency composition of its special drawing rights (SDR), with a final decision expected between November and early 2016. The currencies now included in the SDR “basket” are from the world’s most influential² economies: dollars, euros, yen³ and sterling⁴.

　　国际货币基金组织(IMF)正对特别提款权(SDR)的货币组成进行为期一年的评估，预计在今年11月至2016年初之间做出最终决定。现在被纳入SDR“篮子”的货币来自全球最具影响力的经济体，这四种货币是：美元、欧元、日元和英镑。

　　If the fund decides to add the renminbi to the SDR basket, it will amount to an assurance to global central banks by the world’s foremost financial technocrats⁵ that renminbi assets are safe.

　　如果IMF决定将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子，那就相当于是全球最有分量的金融技术官员向各国央行保证，人民币资产是安全的。

　　For China, inclusion in the SDR would symbolise the arrival of its currency on the world stage alongside those of the world’s richest countries. National leaders would see it as a formal recognition of China’s increased influence in the global economy and the reforms it has taken to integrate itself with the global financial system.

　　对中国而言，人民币纳入SDR将象征着本国货币登上世界舞台，和全球最富裕国家的货币跻身同一行列。国家领导人将会认为，这是对中国在全球经济中影响力上升以及中国融入全球金融体系的改革的正式认可。

　　“SDR inclusion could be interpreted as international recognition of China’s increased economic importance and role in global financial markets,” says Zhu Haibin, chief China economist⁶ at JPMorgan Chase.

　　摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席中国经济学家朱海斌表示：“将人民币纳入SDR可能被解读为，国际社会承认中国的经济重要性及其在全球金融市场中的地位上升。”

　　The practical impact of SDR inclusion is almost negligible. The IMF created SDRs in 1969 to respond to a global shortage in viable⁷ reserve assets under the Bretton Woods system of fixed⁸ exchange rates. But Bretton Woods collapsed⁹ less than a decade later and today various currencies not included in SDRs, such as the Swiss franc and Australian dollar, are also widely held as reserves.

　　将人民币纳入SDR的实际影响几乎可以忽略不计。IMF在1969年创造了SDR，目的是应对在固定汇率的布雷顿森林体系下全球可用储备资产匮乏的局面。但布雷顿森林体系之后不到十年就解体了，如今许多没有被纳入SDR的货币，比如瑞士法郎和澳元，也被普遍用作储备货币。

　　“While it appears to be a contentious¹⁰ issue, the Rmb’s inclusion in the SDR has little tangible¹¹ and immediate¹² economic benefit for China. The SDR is rarely used by the global financial markets and no country would manage foreign exchange reserves modelled by the SDR,” says Li-Gang Liu, chief greater China economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking¹³ Group.

　　澳新银行(ANZ Bank)大中华区经济研究总监刘利刚表示：“尽管这似乎是一个有争议的问题，但人民币纳入SDR基本上不会为中国带来切实和直接的经济利益。SDR很少在全球金融市场中使用，任何国家都不会管理基于SDR的外汇储备。”

　　But inclusion into this elite¹⁴ club would have real-world consequences. Every IMF member holds at least some SDRs. Thus, the inclusion of the renminbi would mean that these countries would suddenly be holding renminbi, albeit¹⁵ indirectly¹⁶. With that threshold crossed, central bank renminbi holdings could be poised¹⁷ to increase rapidly.

　　但人民币加入这一精英俱乐部将有现实意义。IMF所有成员国都至少持有一些SDR。因此，将人民币纳入SDR将意味着，这些国家将会突然开始持有人民币，尽管是间接地持有。随着跨过这个门槛，各国央行持有的人民币数量可能迅速增加。

　　Though there is no formal application process to join the SDR basket, China has clearly stated its desire to be included as a result of the five-yearly review now under way.

　　尽管还没有正式开始申请加入SDR，但中国已经明确表示，希望IMF在其正在进行的五年一次的评估中纳入人民币。

　　The two main criteria¹⁸ for a currency’s inclusion in the SDR basket is that the issuing country be a significant exporting nation and that the currency itself be “freely usable”.

　　将一种货币纳入SDR有两个主要标准：货币发行国必须是大型出口国，而且货币本身必须“可以自由使用”。

　　Wei Yao, China economist at Société Générale who assesses the renminbi’s chances of inclusion at about 50 per cent, says: “China, as the biggest exporter in the world, passes the first test with flying colours. It is more debatable whether the renminbi meets the second criterion.”

　　法国兴业银行(Société Générale)中国经济学家姚伟表示：“作为全球最大的出口国，中国完全符合第一个标准。更具争议性的是，人民币是否符合第二个标准。”姚伟认为人民币被纳入SDR的可能性在50%左右。

　　The main sticking point is Chinese capital controls, which severely¹⁹ restrict the ability to buy and sell renminbi for investment purposes. Progress on so-called capital-account convertibility²⁰ will be an important factor in the IMF’s decision.

　　主要症结在于中国的资本管制措施，这极大地限制了外资出于投资目的买卖人民币的能力。资本账户可兑换计划的进展将是影响IMF决定的一个重要因素。

　　The launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect last November marked an important step towards allowing freer cross-border flows of renminbi — known as capital-account liberalisation. But the programme is still subject to a quota²¹ that caps foreign investment to a tiny fraction of overall market capitalisation.

　　去年11月推出的“沪港通”机制标志着中国向允许人民币更自由跨境流动（这被称为资本账户自由化）方向迈出了重要一步。但“沪港通”仍有配额限制，从而使得外国投资仅占中国股市整体市值的一小部分。

　　Access to the bond market is an even greater obstacle, as bonds are the favoured assets for central bank reserve managers. China took an important step towards free usability in July, however, when it announced that central banks and sovereign wealth funds no longer needed preapproval to buy into the domestic bond market. But non-official investors²² such as mutual²³ funds and individuals remain subject to quota and licensing²⁴ restrictions²⁵.

　　更大的障碍是债券市场的准入问题，因为债券是央行储备资产管理者青睐的资产。不过今年7月中国宣布，外国央行和主权财富基金进入中国债券市场不再需要经过预先批准，从而向人民币自由使用迈出了重要的一步。但共同基金和个人等非官方投资者依然需要取得配额和牌照。

　　“The announcement shows that the PBoC’s determination for capital-account liberalisation has not been deterred²⁶ by the stock market volatility²⁷...愠渀搀 that the central bank is still promoting the renminbi’s inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket during its next review,” said Jianguang Shen, China economist at Mizuho Securities Asia.

　　瑞穗证券亚洲(Mizuho Securities Asia)的中国经济学家沈建光表示：“该声明表明，中国人民银行(PBoC)实现资本账户自由化的决心没有被股市波动吓阻……央行仍将推动IMF在其下次评估期间将人民币纳入SDR。”

　　The IMF has never adopted specific metrics to determine whether a currency is “freely usable”, giving the fund’s executive board considerable flexibility²⁸. However, unofficial IMF working papers suggest that the fund considers whether the renminbi is, in fact, widely used for financial transactions at least as important as what regulations appear to permit or forbid.

　　IMF从未就一国货币是否属于“自由使用”出台明确标准，从而给予其执行委员会极大的灵活性。然而，IMF的非正式工作报告表明，在IMF看来，人民币事实上是否广泛应用于金融交易，至少与监管法规看上去允许或禁止的内容一样重要。

　　“Capital-account convertibility is not a precondition for SDR inclusion. For instance, the yen was included in the SDR basket in 1973, but Japan liberalised international capital flows only in 1980.”

　　“资本账户可兑换不是纳入SDR的先决条件。例如，日元在1973年被纳入SDR，但日本在1980年才允许国际资本自由流动”。

　　In this regard, the fact that 60 central banks already hold renminbi among their reserves, according to Standard Chartered estimates, is likely to be viewed as an important indicator²⁹ of usability. But it remains³⁰ unclear how the IMF will interpret the fact that many of these central bank reserves are held in offshore³¹ renminbi assets, which are not subject to Chinese regulations.

　　就此而言，据渣打银行(Standard Chartered)估计，已经有60家央行在外汇储备中持有人民币，这可能被视为判断人民币使用的广泛程度的重要指标。但这些央行的人民币储备中有许多是离岸人民币资产——这些离岸人民币不受中国的监管——目前尚不清楚IMF对此怎么看。

　　Many obstacles remain to the currency being “freely usable”. Individuals are still subject to a $50,000 per year limit on converting renminbi to foreign currency and vice³² versa. China plans to roll out a pilot programme for individual outbound investment this year, but it will still be subject to quotas³³.

　　让人民币成为“自由使用”的货币依然存在许多障碍。个人将人民币兑换为外币依然存在每年5万美元的限制，反之亦然。中国计划在今年启动个人对外投资的试点项目，但仍会有配额的限制。

　　Ultimately, analysts³⁴ expect political considerations to play an important role. If the fund refuses entry to China, it could deepen the Chinese leadership’s distrust of institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and G20, which it already views as unfairly dominated by the west.

　　最终而言，分析师预计政治考量将是一个关键因素。如果IMF拒绝将人民币纳入SDR，就可能加深中国领导人对IMF、世界银行(World Bank)和20国集团(G20)等机构的不信任——中国已经认为西方在这些机构中不公平地占据着主导地位。

　　On the other hand, the US is likely to argue that the SDR is an important lever that can be used to incentivise China to quicken financial reform. IMF president Christine Lagarde has said that the renminbi’s inclusion is a “matter of when, not if”. That has led many observers to expect a compromise in which the fund will formally declare its intention to add the renminbi to the SDR — but only once deregulation proceeds a bit further.

　　另一方面，美国可能认为，SDR是可以用来刺激中国加快金融改革的重要工具。IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，人民币纳入SDR是“何时纳入的问题、而非是否纳入的问题”。这让许多观察家预计将会出现妥协局面——IMF将会正式宣布打算将人民币纳入SDR，但前提是中国进一步解除管制。

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 influential   

adj.有影响的，有权势的

参考例句：

• He always tries to get in with the most influential people.他总是试图巴结最有影响的人物。
• He is a very influential man in the government.他在政府中是个很有影响的人物。

3 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

4 sterling   

adj.英币的(纯粹的，货真价实的)；n.英国货币(英镑)

参考例句：

• Could you tell me the current rate for sterling, please?能否请您告诉我现行英国货币的兑换率？
• Sterling has recently been strong,which will help to abate inflationary pressures.英国货币最近非常坚挺，这有助于减轻通胀压力。

5 technocrats   

n.技术专家，专家政治论者( technocrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Few business barons remained. They were replaced by "technocrats," who became the heads of corporations. 企业巨头所剩无几，大多已被“技术专家”所代替，这些人成了公司的领导。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• However, bankers called the technocrats' bluff and proceeded to lend with gusto. 但是，银行家们称技术专家官员不过在虚张声势，并且还会乐观的继续借贷业务。 来自互联网

6 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

7 viable   

adj.可行的，切实可行的，能活下去的

参考例句：

• The scheme is economically viable.这个计划从经济效益来看是可行的。
• The economy of the country is not viable.这个国家经济是难以维持的。

8 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

9 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

10 contentious   

adj.好辩的，善争吵的

参考例句：

• She was really not of the contentious fighting sort.她委实不是好吵好闹的人。
• Since then they have tended to steer clear of contentious issues.从那时起，他们总想方设法避开有争议的问题。

11 tangible   

adj.有形的，可触摸的，确凿的，实际的

参考例句：

• The policy has not yet brought any tangible benefits.这项政策还没有带来任何实质性的好处。
• There is no tangible proof.没有确凿的证据。

12 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

13 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

14 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

15 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

16 indirectly   

adv.间接地，不直接了当地

参考例句：

• I heard the news indirectly.这消息我是间接听来的。
• They were approached indirectly through an intermediary.通过一位中间人，他们进行了间接接触。

17 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

18 criteria   

n.标准

参考例句：

• The main criterion is value for money.主要的标准是钱要用得划算。
• There are strict criteria for inclusion in the competition.参赛的标准很严格。

19 severely   

adv.严格地；严厉地；非常恶劣地

参考例句：

• He was severely criticized and removed from his post.他受到了严厉的批评并且被撤了职。
• He is severely put down for his careless work.他因工作上的粗心大意而受到了严厉的批评。

20 convertibility   

n.可改变性，可变化性；兑换

参考例句：

• Some countermeasure and recommendation on RMB's full convertibility. " 对人民币实现完全自由兑换提出了对策和建议。 来自互联网
• China capital convertibility's course is the same as foreign exchange system reform. 中国资本项目开放的进程，是与我国外汇体制改革的步伐相一致的。 来自互联网

21 quota   

n.（生产、进出口等的）配额，（移民的）限额

参考例句：

• A restricted import quota was set for meat products.肉类产品设定了进口配额。
• He overfulfilled his production quota for two months running.他一连两个月超额完成生产指标。

22 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

23 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

24 licensing   

v.批准，许可，颁发执照( license的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• A large part of state regulation consists of occupational licensing. 大部分州的管理涉及行业的特许批准。 来自英汉非文学 - 行政法
• That licensing procedures for projects would move faster. 这样的工程批准程序一定会加快。 来自辞典例句

25 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

26 deterred   

v.阻止，制止( deter的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• I told him I wasn't interested, but he wasn't deterred. 我已告诉他我不感兴趣，可他却不罢休。
• Jeremy was not deterred by this criticism. 杰里米没有因这一批评而却步。 来自辞典例句

27 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

28 flexibility   

n.柔韧性，弹性，（光的）折射性，灵活性

参考例句：

• Her great strength lies in her flexibility.她的优势在于她灵活变通。
• The flexibility of a man's muscles will lessen as he becomes old.人老了肌肉的柔韧性将降低。

29 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

30 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

31 offshore   

adj.海面的，吹向海面的；adv.向海面

参考例句：

• A big program of oil exploration has begun offshore.一个大规模的石油勘探计划正在近海展开。
• A gentle current carried them slowly offshore.和缓的潮流慢慢地把他们带离了海岸。

32 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

33 quotas   

（正式限定的）定量( quota的名词复数 )； 定额； 指标； 摊派

参考例句：

• In fulfilling the production quotas, John made rings round all his fellow workers. 约翰完成生产定额大大超过他的同事们。
• Quotas of the means of production are allocated by the higher administrative bodies to the lower ones. 物资指标按隶属关系分配。

34 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。