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　　Vietnamese officials are criticizing the Lao government’s controversial plan to build a dam on the Mekong River. Analysts¹ say opposition² from Vietnam and other lower Mekong countries could force Laos to scale back its hydropower ambitions.
越南政府官员批评老挝政府在湄公河上修建大坝的计划。分析人士说，来自越南和其他湄公河下游国家的反对可能会使老挝雄心勃勃的休坝计划搁浅。
Vietnamese officials are publicly opposing a plan by neighboring Laos to build a hydropower dam on the Mekong River.
越南官员公开反对邻国老挝在湄公河上修建大坝的计划。
The $3.5 billion Xayaburi hydropower dam is the first of 12 dams planned for the lower Mekong. A Thai developer would build the dam, and Thailand would buy most of the 1,260 megawatts of electricity the dam would generate.
这项耗资35亿美元的沙耶武里水力发电计划是计划在湄公河下游修建的12座大坝之一。一家泰国开发商计划承建这项工程。竣工后，泰国将购买其1260兆瓦发电量的绝大部分。
Lao officials say the proposed Mekong dams would cut poverty and bolster³ their land-locked country’s economy.
老挝官员说，拟议中的湄公河大坝工程有助于削减贫困，帮助提振本国经济。
Criticism
But Vietnamese officials say the dam would jeopardize⁴ water supplies and threaten fishing on the river’s downstream reaches. Their recent comments echoed warnings by environmentalists that the Mekong dams would damage the environment and threaten the livelihoods⁵ of people who live near the river.
但是，越南官员说，大坝将危及越南的水源供应，并威胁河道下游的捕鱼业。越南最近表达的反对声音呼应了环保人士最近发出的警告。他们指出，大坝将造成环境危害，并威胁湄公河附近居民的生计。
Analysts say political pressure from Vietnam and its lower Mekong neighbors – Thailand and Cambodia – could force Laos to delay or modify its plans to harness the Mekong’s flow.
分析人士说，越南和湄公河下游邻国泰国和柬埔寨的反对可能会促使老挝推迟或者修改这项水力工程。
Philip Hirsch, a professor of human ecology at the University of Sydney, told VOA that of the lower Mekong countries, Vietnam has so far been most publicly critical of Laos’ hydropower ambitions.
悉尼大学的人类生态学教授菲利普·赫茨说，在湄公河下游国家中，越南对大坝工程的反对最为坚决。
"The interesting question, which I think is very difficult for anyone to answer, is how these two countries, Vietnam and Laos – which are so close – are going to extricate⁶ themselves from what at the moment seem to be diametrically opposite positions on the Xayabouri dam," Hirsch said.
他说，“一个有趣的问题，也是很难回答的问题，就是越南和老挝这两个近邻如何协调他们在沙耶武里大坝计划上完全对立的立场。”
Vietnam and Laos are both one-party states and Hirsch says Vietnam typically influences Lao policy "behind closed doors." But Hirsch says recent criticism of the Xayabouri proposal by high-ranking Vietnamese officials has been "very public."
越南和老挝都是一党专制国家。赫茨说，越南通常使用非公开渠道影响老挝的政策。但是，他表示，越南高层官员对沙耶武里大坝的批评非常公开。
All four lower Mekong countries will be closely watching a recommendation on the dam expected this month from the Joint⁷ Committee of the Mekong River Commission, an advisory⁸ body formed in 1995 to promote sustainable development along the 4,900-kilometer Mekong system.
湄公河下游的所有四个国家将密切关注湄公河委员会本月即将就大坝工程提出的建议。这个顾问机构成立于1995年，其宗旨是推进长达4千9百公里的湄公河流经地带的可持续开发。
Influence
But Hirsch points out that the MRC has no power to force Laos to abandon its plans for the Xayabouri and other Mekong dams.
但是，赫茨指出，湄公河委员会没有权力强迫老挝放弃沙耶武里和其他湄公河上的大坝工程。
"The MRC is not a regulatory institution,” Hirsch added. “It’s not a strong agency in that way, it’s one which has always worked on the basis of trying to achieve consensus⁹, and if we’re looking for regulation from the MRC, I think we’re looking in the wrong direction."
赫茨：“湄公河委员会不是监管机构。从这方面来说，其权力不是很大。这个机构一直是通过构筑共识的方式进行工作。如果我们希望湄公河委员会提供监管的话，这是个错误的方向。”
Hirsch says Thailand has vowed¹⁰ to stay neutral in MRC negotiations¹¹, which puts the onus¹² on Vietnamese and Cambodian officials to address the Xayabouri dam proposal in discussions with their Lao counterparts.
他说，泰国承诺对湄公河委员会的谈判保持中立。这样一来，和老挝就沙耶武里大坝提议进行谈判的负担主要落在越南和柬埔寨身上。
Trinh Le Nguyen is executive director of the Vietnamese NGO PanNature. He tells VOA that although Laos has final say over the Xayabouri and other Mekong dams, Vietnam may pressure Laos by threatening to not invest in future Mekong hydropower projects.
越南非政府组织PanNature的执行总干事阮志利对美国之音表示，尽管老挝在沙耶武里和其他大坝问题上有最终发言权，越南可以威胁拒绝在未来的湄公河水力工程中投资，以此向老挝施加压力。
"Vietnam can decide not to invest or buy anything from [Laos],” Trinh Le Nguyen said. “It’s one of the ways they can have some power."
“越南可以决定不再投资，或者拒绝购买老挝产品。这样他们就会有一些谈判筹码。”
In October, an independent study commissioned by the MRC recommended that lower Mekong countries delay decisions on hydropower projects for 10 years, warning that Mekong hydropower dams would exacerbate¹³ food insecurity and cause "serious and irreversible" environmental effects.
去年10月，湄公河委员会组织的一项调查建议湄公河下游国家将水力工程推迟10年。这项调查警告说，水力工程可能会加剧粮食短缺，并导致严重和不可逆转的环境后果。
China, which borders northern Laos, already operates four dams on the upper reaches of the Mekong River.
中国和老挝北部接壤。中国已经在湄公河上游运行四座大坝。