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美国中西部农民担忧EPA乙醇标准变化

In November, the Environmental Protection Agency proposed lowering the mandated² amount of ethanol mixture in the nation’s gasoline supply. Current law requires refiners to use 68 billion liters of ethanol by 2014. The proposed changes would cut that requirement to about 56 billion liters. Farmers in the midwestern United States who produce corn used to make ethanol say the proposed changes could hurt them financially.

环境保护署11月提议降低国内汽油供应中混合乙醇的规定剂量。现行法规要求加工商在2014年底前使用680亿升乙醇。提出的改革建议将这个要求降低到560亿升乙醇。美国中西部生产玉米以制造乙醇的农民说这个变化可能导致他们财务上的损失。

It's a prosperous year in the cornfields of Polo, Illinois, for farmer Brian Duncan.

对伊利诺伊州保罗镇的农民布莱恩?邓肯来说，今年玉米地的收成很好。

“This year we had record yields, and a huge crop," said Duncan.

他说， “今年我们的收成创了记录，还有很多庄稼。

It is a similar story across the country…farmers coming off one of the worst years on record because of last year’s drought now face some of the best yields in recent memory.

在国内的其他地方情况也差不多。农民们经历了由于去年的干旱带来的年景最差的一年，现在他们迎来了近期记忆中收成最好的一年。

That, however, is where Duncan says the good news ends.

但是，邓肯说，好事到这里就结束了。

“As we look at the increased bushels, our inventories³ are gonna be worth $3 a bushel less than what they were valued at a year ago," he said.

他说， “当我们看着增加的蒲式耳时，我们的库存的价格将比去年的价格每蒲式耳降低3美元。”

As the sun sets each day on Duncan’s golden harvest, the price of corn continues to decline, from an all time high of more than $7 a bushel set during the peak of the drought last year.

当阳光每日洒在邓肯金色的收成时，玉米的价格却从去年干旱时的最高纪录7美元每蒲式耳不断下降。

"Four-dollar corn in this environment is tough enough, let alone $2.50 or $2.75 corn, which is what we could be looking at with another big crop, which is why we needed higher blend rates of ethanol," he said.

邓肯说：“在这个环境下玉米能卖4美元就很难了，更别说2.5美元或者2.75美元的玉米，这个应该是其他大型作物的价格。这就是为什么我们需要更高的乙醇混合比例。”

Demand for ethanol, a liquid fuel created from corn, grew in 2007 when the Renewable Fuel Standard, or RFS, was put in place. The RFS mandated that fuel makers⁴ blend ethanol into their gasoline, with the amount increasing over time. That was good news for corn producers like Duncan, who saw a steady increase in demand for their product... and its price. Times, however, are changing, says GrainAnalyst.com contributing editor Craig Turner.

对乙醇——一种玉米制造的液体燃料的需求在2007年可再生燃料标准生效时大增。该标准要求燃料生产商将乙醇混入汽油，并且比例随时间提高。这个对邓肯等玉米生产商来说是一个好消息。他们看到对他们作物的需求和价格一直增加。粮食分析网站特约编辑克雷格?特纳说，然而，时代正在变化。

“We’ve hit the blend wall. Since 2008, the United States consumes about 9 percent less gasoline than we used to. We can only use 10 percent of ethanol in a gallon of gasoline [before it harms some engines], and we basically hit that wall. So we can’t produce any more ethanol; we have to stay the same, and if fuel efficiency gets even better, then the ethanol mandate¹ could come down even further," said Turner.

特纳说：“我们已经碰到了混合的上限。自2008年以来，美国和过去相比消费的汽油降低了9个百分点。我们只能在一加仑汽油中使用百分之十的乙醇，我们基本上已经到上限了。所以我们不能在制造更多乙醇了；我们需要保持现有水平，如果燃料效率提高的话，乙醇的限制有可能在今后变得更低。”

Turner says one ironic⁵ factor driving down demand for ethanol is the growing number of fuel-efficient vehicles on the road.

特纳说一个具有讽刺性的乙醇需求降低的原因是，道路上有了越来越多的燃油高效汽车。

“Every year we take older cars off the road and replace them with more fuel-efficient cars, we’re going to be using less gasoline, so now that we’ve reached this peak in corn ethanol it’s actually hurting farmers," he said.

他说：“每年我们从道路上拿走旧车，换上燃油高效汽车。我们将会使用更少的汽油，所以现在我们已经达到了使用玉米乙醇的上限，事实上在伤害农民。”

That's certainly not the scenario⁶ farmer Brian Duncan was banking⁷ on.

这绝对不是农民布莱恩?邓恩在等待的。

“We’re happy for the market, but we have ever increasing yields, and ever increasing production capabilities⁸, for ethanol, and we were kind of planning on the EPA following through with their increase and inclusion of green fuels," he said.

他说： “我们为市场高兴，但是我们有正在增加的收成，正在提高的乙醇生产能力。我们是有点希望跟随环境保护署增加绿色燃料的要求。”

The biggest uncertainty⁹ for farmers used to be the weather. But with changing ethanol standards, falling corn prices, and the lack of action in the U.S. Congress on a new farm bill, the weather seems to be the least uncertain obstacle Brian Duncan and other U.S. farmers face in the new year.

对农民来说，过去最大的不确定因素是天气。但是随着不断改变的乙醇标准，降低的玉米价格，和美国国会对一项新的农业立法的不做为，天气似乎不再是邓肯等美国农民新的一年面对的最大不确定性障碍。