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中东局势动荡使以色列不安

The year 2013 saw more upheaval¹ in the Middle East as the effects continued from popular uprisings in a half-dozen countries. For Israel this brought a mixed reaction of reassurance² and uncertainty³.

The effort to end Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program caused Israeli leaders their greatest worry. Few believe Iran is serious about abandoning its program, whose existence it denies. Ephraim Kam is at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

以色列领导人最担心的是结束伊朗涉嫌进行的核武器项目的努力。很少有人相信伊朗真的会放弃它否认存在的核项目。特拉维夫国家安全研究所的坎姆说：

"They [the Iranians] have not invested so many efforts and money just to stop it now even if they are in economic trouble. So what they are trying to do is to maneuver⁴, to give something, to get much more than they give and when the time is appropriate to continue with their nuclear program," said Kam.

“虽然伊朗面临经济困境，但是他们投入了这么多人力财力，不可能现在就结束。所以伊朗人现在就是使用各种办法，放弃一些东西，然后争取到比他们放弃的要多得多的好处，一旦时机合适，再继续推进核项目。”

Israeli leaders are also watching the war in Syria. They like that the fighting is distracting the attention and absorbing the resources of Syria's government and its allies, Iran and Hezbollah. But the situation must be watched, said Ely Karmon of The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism.  "Who will control the vast territory which now is under the control of dozens, dozens of small organizations," he questioned. "Jihadists, Salafists, some of them local warlords?"

以色列领导人还关注着叙利亚战争。战争分散了叙利亚政府及其盟友、伊朗和真主党的注意力，耗费了他们的资源，以色列喜欢这一点。但以色列国际反恐研究所的卡尔蒙说，必须密切关注叙利亚局势：“要注意谁将控制现在由包括圣战者和一些地方军阀在内的几十个小组织占据着的大片地区。”

The Syrian conflict has aggravated⁵ tensions between the Sunni and Shi'ite branches of Islam across the region. Ephraim Kam said this, too, is benefiting Israel, though the arrival of so many fighters is worrisome.

叙利亚冲突加剧了中东地区逊尼派和什叶派穆斯林之间的紧张关系。坎姆认为，这对以色列有好处，尽管大量武装人员的参与令人担忧：

"Our concern is that at a certain point, when the struggle will decline, we are going to find these guys trying to challenge us. This is a problem. Not now. Not immediately. What we have immediately, it's relatively⁶ small incidents but sometime in future it can change," Kam said.

“我们担心，冲突未来在某个时刻一旦缓和下来，我们将发现这些家伙要把我们当作挑战目标了。这是个问题。但现在还不是，不会马上出现这种情况。我们眼下看到的是一些相对比较小的事件，但未来情况会发生变化。”

Egypt's military coup⁷ was a relief to Israeli officials. The new government in Cairo has cracked down on terrorist activity in the Sinai near Israel and wants to weaken the anti-Israel Hamas movement that rules Gaza.

开罗新政府在西奈半岛靠近以色列的地区压制了恐怖活动，并希望削弱统治着加沙地带的反以色列哈马斯运动。

The revival⁸ of peace talks with the Palestinians after a three-year freeze brought some hope but most observers are not optimistic.

以巴和谈在冻结三年之后重新开始，给人们带来一些希望。但大部分观察人士并不乐观。

Ely Karmon said each side is constrained⁹ by its hardliners. "So I think that we need an interim¹⁰ agreement which will give symbolic¹¹ territorial¹² gains to the Palestinians over the very short term, much more freedom of movement and economic incentives¹³ and a very general framework which will speak about a final agreement," he said.

卡尔蒙说，各方都受制于己方的强硬派：“所以我认为我们应当有一个临时协议，在非常短的时期内让巴勒斯坦人在领土问题上获得一些象征性进展，有更多的行动自由和经济刺激措施，以及一个非常笼统的框架，以此为基础来讨论一个最后协议。”

The Palestinians are pessimistic. They don't believe Israel is ready to make concessions¹⁴, like freezing West Bank settlement, said Hadi Abdul Mahdi of East Jerusalem's PASSIA research institute. "We are contained and will continue to be contained in an autonomy-minus situation, governed militarily by Israelis, controlled by the powers of the West and keeping mediocre¹⁵ people in offices like municipality arrangements," he added.

巴勒斯坦人比较悲观。东耶路撒冷PASSIA研究所的马赫迪指出，巴勒斯坦人不认为以色列准备妥协，例如冻结约旦河西岸定居点建设：“在不完全自治的情况下，我们受到而且将继续受到掣肘，军事上受制于以色列，受西方大国的控制，市政府等机构由一些平庸的人坐镇。”

Israeli leaders said they are ready to make concessions but need security guarantees. But given the rising number of incidents in the past year, this appears less and less likely.

以色列领导人表示，他们随时准备做出妥协，但是需要有安全保障。然而，过去一年来各种事件层出不穷，这种保障越来越不可能了。