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2014美国中期选举对奥巴马举足轻重

U.S. voters head to the polls next November for congressional midterm elections with enormous political stakes for President Barack Obama. All 435 seats in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will be at stake along with 33 of the 100 seats in the Democratically-controlled Senate. Obama has seen a major dip in his public approval rating of late and if that continues, it could be a major factor in the November elections.

美国选民明年11月将前往投票站进行国会的中期选举， 奥巴马总统将面临巨大的政治风险。共和党控制的众议院所有435个议席，民主党控制的参议院中100个席位中的33个议席都将面临改组。奥巴马总统最近在民众中的支持率显著下降。 如果这个状况继续的话， 这将是影响明年11月选举的关键因素之一。

House Speaker John Boehner and his fellow Republicans hope to gain congressional seats in November by focusing on the troubled rollout of Obama’s health care law.

为了获得11月的议席，众议院议长贝纳和他的共和党同仁希望将火力集中在奥巴马总统问题百出的健保计划的推出上。

“Why did the president mislead the American people when he promised they could keep their health care plan? Why is Obamacare forcing Americans to lose access to the doctors they like,” said Boehner.

贝纳说：“为什么奥巴马总统在向美国民众承诺他们可以保留现有的医疗保险的时候误导他们？ 为什么奥巴马健保计划迫使美国人无法获得他们喜欢的医生的服务？”

Democrats¹ insist public support for the law will increase over time. But even Obama acknowledges that Democrats are paying a political price in the short term.

民主党人坚称，随着时间的推移，公众对奥巴马健保计划的支持会增加，但是，甚至奥巴马总统自己也承认，短期内，民主党人正因为这项法律付出政治代价。

“There is no doubt that our failure to roll out the ACA [Affordable Care Act] smoothly³ has put a burden on Democrats, whether they are running or not, because they stood up and supported this effort through thick and thin,” he said.

“毫无疑问，我们无法让可支付保险法平稳推出给民主党带来了负担。不管他们参加不参加选举，因为他们不顾艰难站出来，支持了该法的推出。”

The president’s party often lost seats in the second term midterm election and the fate of the health care law would have a major impact on the elections, said analyst⁴ John Fortier.

政治分析人士约翰·福捷说： 总统所在的党派在中期选举中总是会丢掉一些议席， 健保计划将会对选举产生重大影响。

“And I think the uncertainty⁵ of what will happen between now and the midterm election is really the biggest factor, uncertainty for the American people, but also for a lot of Democrats who are nervously⁶ eyeing the elections themselves and wondering how they are going to be affected,” he said.

福捷说：“在我看来， 现在到中期选举这段时间将会发生什么的不确定性将会是很大的一个因素。对美国人来说，是不确定的， 对很多民主党来说也是一样的。他们现在紧张地关注者选举，担心他们会受到何种影响。”

Public attitudes toward Congress were dismal⁷ in the wake of the government shutdown in October, said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown.

奎尼匹克大学民调测试的彼得·布朗说，10月份，政府关闭后，美国民众对国会的态度也是沮丧的。

“The American people are frustrated," he said. "They see what is going on in Washington and scratch their heads and say, ‘Can’t these guys make anything happen?’”

布朗说： “美国民众很沮丧。他们看着华盛顿发生的一切，并在挠头，他们在问‘这些家伙能成事吗？’”

Lawmakers with Tea Party support got much of the blame for the shutdown, and that has sparked a new battle within the Republican Party, said Republican strategist Ford² O’Connell.

共和党战略分析人士福特·奥康奈尔说，茶党的国会议员们因为政府关门受到了很多的指责，这引发了共和党内部的新的争斗。

“Many mainstream⁸ Republicans are now pointing the finger at the Tea Party as well, not just Democrats," he said. "The Tea Party is on to the right issues. The question is: are they going to change their tactics and their messaging?”

奥康奈尔说： “许多主流的共和党人现在不仅在指责民主党，也在指责茶党。茶党的关注问题是对的， 问题是他们能否改变他们的战略和传达的信息。”众议院议长贝纳最近也在批评反对妥协的保守派团体。

House Speaker Boehner recently lashed⁹ out at conservative groups that oppose compromise.

贝纳说：“我认为，他们在误导追随者。他们正在把我们的成员推向他们并不希望去的地方。坦率地说，我认为他们已经失去了所有的可信度。”

“I think they are misleading their followers¹⁰. I think they are pushing our members in places where they don’t want to be and frankly¹¹ I just think that they have lost all credibility,” he said.

民主党在2006年赢得了众议院的控制权，但是，共和党人在2010年赢回了控制权， 分析人士罗德斯·库克说，预计，今年，两个党都没有可能占绝对上风。

Democrats won control of the House in 2006 but Republicans won it back in 2010. No major tide for either party was expected this year, said analyst Rhodes Cook.

“I don’t think we are going to have any big wave election like that in part because we had it, you know, in 2010. Those seats that were ready to topple have toppled," he said. "We are down basically to seats that are on pretty firm ground for the Republicans.”

克说：“我认为，我们不会再出现先前一边倒的选举，部分因为，你知道，我们2010年出现了这样的情况，那些可能会被推翻的议席已经被推翻了。对共和党来说，我们基本上接近我们可以取得的议席。”

Republicans are favored to hold their majority in the House and the real battle will be for control of the now-Democratically-held Senate.

共和党可能还会赢得他们在众议院的多数党地位，真正的战斗将是现在民主党控制的参议院的控制权。