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2014年全球经济会好转

The global economy may be entering a new phase as the year draws to a close. New data suggest some of the uncertainty¹ that has characterized much of 2013 appears to be lifting as a new year begins, though economists³ are cautious. Despite steady improvement, U.S. unemployment remains⁴ high, Europe’s debt crisis is far from over, and China’s economy continues to slow.

2013年即将结束，全球经济可能会进入一个新阶段。新数据显示，2013年的主要特点是不稳定，这个特征似乎会在新年里消失。可是经济学家仍然持谨慎态度，尽管经济在稳步改善，可是美国的失业率居高不下，欧洲债务危机远远没有结束，中国经济继续放缓。 人们期望2014年全球经济会好转。

As the year ends, more people are finding work in the United States, the economy is growing at the fastest pace in two years and Congress has a new budget that effectively removes the threat of another costly⁵ government shutdown.

2013年即将结束，越来越多的美国人找到了工作，经济增长速度达到２年来最高水平，国会通过了新预算，有效地排除了又一次代价昂贵的政府关门的危险。

Barring another political standoff, small business advocate John Arensmeyer sees an improved business climate in 2014. “Could be a better year than 2013, particularly if we don’t see the type of shenanigans we saw with the shutdown.”

小企业主约翰·阿伦斯迈尔说，排除了另一个政府僵局后，2014年的商业气候会有所改善。阿伦斯迈尔说：“明年会比2013年好，尤其是没有政府关门这类勾心斗角的事的话。”

China's strength

Across the Pacific, China's economy has slowed after decades of double-digit expansion.

在太平洋彼岸，中国经济在几十年来以两位数速度发展后开始放缓。

But even with a relatively⁶ modest outlook of seven percent growth, international economist² Uri Dadush said China continues to exert strong economic influence in the region.

可是卡内基国际和平基金会国际经济学家尤里·达杜什说，即使放慢到7%的增长速度，中国仍然会对这个地区发挥强大的经济影响。

“It’s going to be somewhat slower going forward over the next year or two, but still sufficient to pull a large number of countries along,” said Dadush.

达杜什说：“今后一两年里，中国经济增长会稍微放慢一些，不过仍然可以带动很多国家。”

But while improving demand is likely to benefit countries from Cambodia to Japan, European economies remain weak.

虽然中国需求的增长可能会有利于柬埔寨和日本，可是欧洲经济将仍然疲软。

The European Commission says growth will slow in the 18 nations that use the euro - with unemployment likely to inch higher in the new year.

欧盟委员会说，使用欧元的18个国家增长会放慢，新的一年失业率可能会更高。

Europe's recovery

Despite recent banking⁷ reforms, Dadush said tough austerity measures in countries that received bailouts continue to weigh on Europe’s economy.

达杜什说，尽管最近进行了银行改革，可是那些得到援助的国家所采取的严厉紧缩措施仍然是欧洲经济的沉重负担。

“Italy’s in deep trouble, and it’s going to take some years even for the Spains and the Portugals and the Irish to come out of the mess,” said Dadush.

达杜什说：“意大利的问题严重，即使西班牙、葡萄牙和爱尔兰也需要很多年才能摆脱困境。”

Lingering questions also remain about the international impact of the U.S. central bank’s decision to scale back monetary⁸ stimulus⁹. With prices of raw materials likely to fall next year, economists say commodity-dependent countries could see their revenues fall.

另外，美联储缩减货币刺激政策的决定会产生什么样的影响，仍然是一个悬而未决的疑问。经济学家说，明年原材料价格可能会下跌，依赖出口原材料的国家收入可能会降低。

“That includes Brazil, but it also includes Turkey, it includes Hungary, it may include Indonesia, that is also commodity-dependent by the way,” said Dadush.

达杜什说： “这不仅包括巴西，还有土耳其和匈牙利。顺便提一下，还可能包括依赖出口原材料的国家印度尼西亚。”

In the Middle East, some of the Arab Spring countries, which remain politically unstable¹⁰, are expected to experience economic difficulties in 2014.

中东的一些国家政局仍然不稳，预计在2014年会出现经济困难。

Pinfan Hong, chief of global economic monitoring at the United Nations, said, “Nevertheless, we believe some improvements are building the momentum¹¹ for next year. So we expect the world economy to grow by about three percent for 2014.”

联合国全球监测中心主任洪平凡说： “不过，我们相信，某些改进会在明年形成势头，所以我们预计，2014年世界经济会增长大约3%。”

2014 also bodes¹² well for Africa. After expanding at an annual pace of 4.8 percent in 2013, the African Development Bank projects growth to accelerate to 5.3 percent, bolstered¹³ by strong growth in the service sector¹⁴ and increased agricultural and mining activity.

预计非洲2014年的前景也不错。非洲2013年的年增长率为4.8%，非洲发展银行预计，非洲服务行业的强劲增长，以及农业和矿业的增长，会让明年的增长率加快到5.3%。