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　　Georgia businessman Herman Cain is the surprise leader in the race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination¹, according to the latest poll. But some political analysts² question whether Cain has enough staying power to remain a serious contender as the first caucus³ and primary votes approach early next year.
根据最新的民意调查结果，乔治亚州商人赫尔曼.凯恩在共和党内竞争总统候选人提名的参选人中是一位出人意料的领先者。可是，随着第一次党内基层会议和初选投票在明年年初展开，一些政治分析人士对凯恩是否有足够的耐力把他的有力竞争者地位保持下去提出疑问。
The latest Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll has Herman Cain with 27 percent support, followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt⁴ Romney at 23 percent. Texas Governor Rick Perry drops to third place with 16 percent.
华尔街日报和全国广播公司新闻部联合进行的最新民意调查结果显示，赫尔曼.凯恩拥有27%的支持率，前麻萨诸塞州州长罗姆尼以23%的支持率名列第二，德克萨斯州州长佩里的名次降至第三，只有16%的支持率。
Texas Congressman⁵ Ron Paul is in fourth place with 11 percent, and the remaining four Republican contenders trail in single digits⁶.
德州联邦众议员罗恩.保罗的支持率为11%，名列第4，其余4位共和党参选人以1位数的支持率落后。
Cain was only at five percent in the same poll last month.
在上个月进行的同一民调中，凯恩的支持率仅仅是5%。
Cain is the only African-American in the Republican field and has gained notice with a smooth speaking style and an ability to connect with voters.
凯恩是共和党参选人中唯一一位非洲裔美国人，他以流畅的讲演风格和与选民交流的能力赢得了人们的注意。
Cain also captured attention with a tax reform plan that would lower personal and corporate⁷ taxes to nine percent each and would impose a nine percent national sales tax. Cain defended his "9-9-9 plan" at the most recent Republican debate.
凯恩还用一项税收改革计划抓住人们的注意力。该计划将要把个人所得税和公司税都降至9%，并且征收9%的全国营业税。凯恩在共和党举行的最新一次辩论中为他的这项“9-9-9”税改计划辩护。
"It starts with, unlike your proposals, throwing out the current tax code," he said. "Continuing to pivot⁸ off the current tax code is not going to boost this economy."
凯恩说：“和你们的计划不同的是，我的计划一开始就要把目前的税制推翻。继续对现行税制做微小修改是不会促进经济的。”
Cain was the chief executive of a pizza company for many years and he also built a conservative following through a radio talk show.
凯恩曾经在一家比萨饼公司担任了许多年首席执行官。他还通过主持一个电台访谈节目争取到许多保守派人士。
Cain acknowledged on ABC's Good Morning America program that he has little foreign policy experience, but said if elected he would work to solidify⁹ ties with U.S. allies like Israel and take a tougher line toward adversaries¹⁰ like Iran.
"President Reagan's philosophy was peace through strength. My foreign policy philosophy is peace through strength and clarity," he said.
Analysts say Cain is surging because he is a fresh face in the Republican field, who excites conservative voters committed to lowering taxes and reducing the size of the federal government.
分析人士说，凯恩之所以人气猛增是因为在共和党参选人当中他是一个新面孔，他的参选使那些致力于减税和缩小联邦政府规模的保守派选民感到振奋。
"Why is Herman Cain doing well? There are an awful lot of people who are unhappy with what is going on. That is what we need to pick up out of this poll," noted¹¹ pollster Peter Hart on MSNBC television.
民意调查专家彼得.哈特对MSNBC电视台说：“赫尔曼.凯恩为什么取得这么好的进展？因为大量的人对现状不满。这就是我们需要从这次民调结果中获得的经验。”
Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown says Cain's challenge will be to continue building support even as attention on him intensifies¹².
昆尼皮亚克大学的民调专家彼得.布朗说，尽管凯恩将会受到大量的关注，但他的参选将会继续获得更多的支持。
"Cain is a favorite of many of the Tea Party types in the Republican coalition," he said. "He is obviously a strong speaker and has a business background. But with that rise in poll standing¹³ it is likely he will get media scrutiny¹⁴ and then we will see whether that helps him or hurts him."
布朗说：“凯恩是共和党联盟中茶党之类的许多成员最喜欢的人。他显然是一位有力的演讲者，而且具有商业背景。可是，随着在民调中的排名上升，他很可能会受到媒体的详细审查，然后，我们将会看到这将会帮助他还是伤害他。”
Despite Cain's recent rise in the polls, Mitt Romney has had several strong debate performances and many Republican strategists still see him as the long-term frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination.
尽管凯恩最近在民意调查中名次上升，但是，罗姆尼在几次辩论中表现很好。许多具有战略眼光的共和党人仍然把罗姆尼视为在争取共和党总统候选人提名中的一位长期领先者。